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Labour fears losing 11 seats to Tories
Dec 10 2004
By Jonathan Walker
A senior Cabinet Minister has predicted that disillusioned Labour voters could hand 11 Midland seats to the Conservatives by defecting to the Liberal Democrats.
Peter Hain, leader of the Commons, revealed fears that former Labour supporters who opposed the war in Iraq could back the Lib Dems at the next General Election.
Speaking to The Birmingham Post, he indicated that one of the key messages during the campaign will be a warning to natural Labour supporters that voting Lib Dem could help the Tories.
He said the loss of votes to Charles Kennedy's party, which opposed the Iraq war, was "the most dangerous thing" threatening Labour's majority.
The comments followed an analysis by academics at Strathclyde University of voting patterns across the country.
It found the Tories could gain 70 seats - enough to rob Tony Blair of his majority and create a hung Parliament - without gaining any extra votes.
All it would take is for Labour voters to switch to the Lib Dems in seats currently held by Mr Blair's party.
Recent by-election results suggest some left-leaning voters, who supported Labour in 1997 and 2001, could be tempted to do this.
The loss of their support could push the Labour candidate down to second place in many constituencies, but the Lib Dems would not gain enough votes to win.
Mr Hain said a swing to the Lib Dems of 8.5 per cent would cost the party 12 seats in the West Midlands.
But the Lib Dems would gain only one - Yardley in Birmingham - and 11 would go to the Conservatives.
Mr Hain said: "There is a proportion of people who will vote Liberal Democrat because they expect us to win - and would be horrified if the result of their vote was a Tory
MP, or Conservative leader Michael Howard with the keys to Number 10.
"There are 11 seats in the West Midlands which the Tories could win due to a Lib Dem vote.
"This is the message we will be pumping out relentlessly over the next few months.
"If Labour supporters don't want a Tory MP then they need to vote Labour rather than thinking they can have a soft vote for the Lib Dems.
"That possibility is the most dangerous thing for us."
He was reluctant to be drawn on the reasons why former Labour supporters might defect.
He said: "Iraq is an issue. There might be others.
"If you have been in power for nearly eight years then it is bound to happen. It is the lot of Government that you become less and less popular."
He said the failure of the Conservatives to make a major breakthrough in the polls might also cost Labour votes.
"We are in a period of politics where we as a Government are in a very strong position and the opposition is very weak.
"That has created a very unusual situation where people may be taking for granted that we will win the next election."
Labour is expected to campaign on the issues of security and the strength of the economy. It is also likely to highlight plans to improve child care services, reform the examination system and help first-time home buyers.
Mr Hain would not comment on the possible date of the election, but many at Westminster are expecting it to be held on May 5 next year.
His comments were backed by Birmingham Labour MP Gisela Stuart whose Edgbaston seat is one of the 11 that could fall to the Tories.
She said: "We have already seen that Birmingham voters who backed the Lib Dems in the local elections got a Conservative-led council, which they did not want."
But Lib Dem MP Matthew Green (Ludlow) said: "In the Hodge Hill by-election Labour voters switched to us and we almost won while the Tories were pushed right down to third place."
